Dolphin intensified into a strong typhoon (~150 mph sustained) and is tracking over the open western Pacific, well to the northeast of the Marianas between the Northern Marianas and Wake Island.
No direct land impacts expected for Saipan, Tinian, or Rota. But the local marine picture is real:
- High surf + dangerous rip currents increasing over the next several days
- Trailing monsoon surge may bring combined seas of 10–14 ft and breezy/gale-force winds by early next week
- Hazardous for mariners; check the harbor authority before going out
This is the live thread for what you’re seeing on the ground — surf heights, swell direction, rip current locations, road pooling, anything Dolphin- or monsoon-related.
Official sources I’ll keep pinned in the first post:
Drop what you’re seeing. Local observation > forwarded forecast.
(I’ll pin this thread and update the first post as conditions change. When Dolphin passes, this gets locked and a new thread starts for the next system.)
NWS Guam meteorologist Landon Aydlett on Good Morning Marianas this morning — quick rundown:
Dolphin is now packing 155 mph winds — high-end Cat 4, just under the 157 mph Cat 5 threshold. Could tick up to 160–165 mph but has stopped its rapid intensification. Forecasters at JTWC had projected a peak of 190 mph; Dolphin appears to have peaked around 165 mph and should begin weakening within 24–48 hours as it moves into cooler water and more hostile conditions.
No direct threat to the Marianas. The forecast has been consistent since before Dolphin crossed the dateline. Storm is tracking west-northwest well north of Saipan and well north of Pagan, passing south and southwest of Wake Island.
What we will feel: the storm’s southern flank will surge the monsoon across the region. Conditions build across the Marianas Saturday, more so Sunday, and peak Monday–Tuesday. A gale watch is in effect for Guam.
Aydlett’s framing worth quoting directly: “Not every typhoon has its eyes set on the Marianas. Their motions, their directions, their steering varies significantly. We always have to take each storm individually.”
And on the wind field: “When you start seeing those stronger winds and those gusty conditions, that does not mean the typhoon is coming. This is just a monsoon well south of this as it basically dominates the whole western Pacific weather pattern the next several days.”
What this means locally:
- North swell building today through early next week — dangerous surf + rip currents, especially along north-facing reefs (Tanapag, Wing, north Garapan).
- Monsoon surge peaks Mon–Tue with combined seas 10–14 ft and breezy/gale-force winds possible.
- Compact storm — typhoon-force winds only extend ~65 mi from the center, tropical-storm-force ~145 mi. So if Dolphin shifts further south, the local impact gets worse. Still tracking it.
Looking ahead: Aydlett says August could be a busy month for the region. Worth getting your typhoon kit squared away this weekend if it’s not already — water, batteries, cash, full gas tank.
Source: NMI News Service, via Good Morning Marianas (Aydlett joined from Colonia, Yap). Original post